Global ethylene will be short-term

According to the report of Japan Chemical Weekly, in 2005, the global ethylene market supply gap was approximately 1.94 million tons/year, and it is estimated that it will increase to 2.31 million tons/year in 2006. Since then, the ethylene market will continue to be in short supply, with a gap of 450,000 tons respectively. 1.97 million tons and 1.16 million. The main reason for the shortage of ethylene supply in the world in 2006 was due to the fact that some large-scale ethylene production facilities will be focused on maintenance and production shutdowns. During the period of centralized maintenance, global ethylene prices are likely to soar in the spring and autumn of 2006.

In the following years from 2010 to 2011, the market situation may be reversed, and global ethylene is estimated to have a surplus of more than 4 million tons/year. This is because during this period, some new ethylene cracking devices built in the Middle East and China were completed and put into operation, resulting in a large increase in global production and supply capacity. Therefore, before 2010, the world will face a difficult period of shortage of ethylene supply. During this period, the production of polyethylene, ethylene glycol and the like, especially ethylene, will be plagued by the shortage of ethylene. In addition, the commissioning of new large ethylene downstream installations in the Middle East will also increase the global ethylene supply.

However, it is expected that by 2012, the production capacity of some newly-built ethylene downstream products will impact the market, and the global ethylene supply will once again be in short supply, and the forecast gap will reach 2.78 million tons/year. This forecast means that the industry originally estimated that the ethylene difficulties that will occur in 2008 will be postponed for two years, will appear in 2010, and then turn to the ethylene market in 2012.

The analysis believes that ethylene demand has been strong since 2004, which is a key factor in the ethylene business performance. Therefore, the production company should pay attention to how to improve the future viability of petrochemical industrial products with ethylene as the main body to adapt to the changing market conditions.

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