In 2011, the China Instrument and Meter Industry Association pointed out in the "12th Five-year Development Plan for Instruments and Meter Industry" that the market demand has changed rapidly and the product structure has been adjusted urgently. In particular, the state has vigorously promoted energy-saving emission reduction and green economy, modern manufacturing, and clean energy. Major industries such as large aircrafts, marine engineering, and smart grids, urban rail transit, and people's livelihoods have provided a wide range of market opportunities for the instrumentation industry. The industry's traditional service market, such as thermal power, metallurgy, and other industries, has slowed down. The market has a large demand, many opportunities, and dramatic changes. It is very difficult for the industry to adjust its structure and level.
Next year petrochemical industry growth rate slowed down
Today, the beginning of the year is nearing completion, and petrochemicals, steel and other industries that we instrument and meter industries have also appeared to have less positive signals. For example, on November 24, the autumn report of China's industrial economy running in 2011 released jointly by the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and the Institute of Industrial Economics of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences showed that from January to October, the value-added of the petrochemical industry increased by 14.5% year-on-year, faster than the scale. Above the growth rate of industrial added value. However, at the same time, the report predicts that due to the adverse effects of the downstream industry's declining demand for petrochemical products and rising energy-saving and emission-reduction pressures, the growth rate of China's petrochemical industry will gradually slow down next year. Under the guidance of many factors, the instrumentation industry will face structural inflection points.
1) The issue of excess capacity shows where the steel industry is going? After several years of rapid development, China's steel industry is now peaking, and the problem of overcapacity has gradually emerged. At the 7th Bohai Rim Steel Market Forum held recently, relevant persons from the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology pointed out that during the 12th Five-Year Plan period, China’s steel demand will enter the top of the peak arc, about 800 million tons, and the industry will show a low growth rate and low profitability. The running trend. Improving steel standards and accelerating product upgrades will be an important task for the steel industry during the 12th Five-Year Plan period.
2) Analyze the phenomenon of low-level repeated production in the instrumentation industry. There is still a huge gap between the domestic instrumentation industry and foreign countries, such as the lack of key core technologies, low level of duplication, the stability and reliability of products cannot be fundamentally resolved, and imports are still heavily dependent on imports for high-end precision instruments. Development has caused adverse effects, and the low level of repetitive production of instruments and meters is particularly prominent.
3) Selected for 2011 major technical equipment instruments. In order to increase the level of innovation and development of equipment manufacturing industry, foster strategic emerging industries, promote the transformation and upgrading of traditional industries, and meet the needs of major national economic and national key construction projects for major technological equipment, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology has completed the “major innovation in major technology and equipmentâ€. Preparation of the Guidance Catalog (2011 Edition, Consultation Draft).
4) The total installed capacity of electricity exceeded 10 billion kilowatts at the end of October. Tan Rongji, director of the State Electricity Regulatory Commission, disclosed that as of the end of October this year, the total installed capacity of power generation in the country has exceeded 1 billion kilowatts, and it is expected to reach 1.04 billion kilowatts in the whole year. Tan Rongji said at the ABB Power World Forum today that although the total installed capacity has exceeded 1 billion kilowatts, the growth rate is still lower than the growth rate of total electricity consumption. Therefore, if the contradictions between coal and electricity are not resolved next year and hydropower continues to weaken, The electricity supply will continue to be tight.
In the next five years, the demand for scientific instruments in China will be very high:
Scientific instruments are classified according to the original mechanical system instruments and meters. In addition to various analytical instruments, they also include optical instruments, testing machines, and laboratory instruments. Optical instruments mainly include various microscopes (biological microscopes, embodied microscopes, electron microscopes, etc.), geodetic surveying instruments (theodolites, level instruments, etc.), optical metrology instruments (tool microscopes, projectors, angle measuring instruments, and optical instruments attached to machine tools, etc.). Physical optical instruments (spectrometers, light meters, spectrophotometers, monochromators, polarimeters, refractometers, etc.) and optical test instruments. The testing machine mainly includes various metal material testing machines, non-metal material testing machines, non-destructive flaw detectors and dynamic balancing machines. Laboratory instruments include precision scales, drying ovens, vacuum instruments, strain gauges, environmental testing instruments, calorimeters and acoustic instruments. The following are described in four parts: analytical instruments, optical instruments, testing machines and laboratory instruments.
(1) Analytical Instruments China's imports of analytical instrument products have remained high for many years. According to customs statistics, the total value of physical and chemical analysis instruments imported by China in 2003 was 1.19 billion U.S. dollars, an increase of 44.6% over 2002. It shows that there is a big gap between domestic products in the level of technology, variety, quality, degree of automation, intelligence and completeness, etc., compared with the level of similar products in the world. It also shows that the demand for high-level analytical instruments is increasing.
The main imported products include mass spectrometers, nuclear magnetic resonance spectrometers, chromatographs, chromatogram mass spectrometers, plasma spectrometers, sewage monitors, gas and smoke monitors, and high-performance fluorescence spectrometers. From the analysis of the performance level of imported products, the proportions of medium and high-grade products were 55% and 45% respectively. With China's use of microelectronics and computer technology and new processes, new materials to improve the level of domestic analytical instruments, the increase in imports will gradually reduce.
It is predicted that in the next five years, the demand for major user departments such as petroleum, chemical, metallurgy and electric power will require 60% of the mid-range complete sets of analytical instruments in the late 1990s, 25% of low-grade analytical instruments, and 15 high-grade analytical instruments. %. National and corporate research institutions and technology centers need digital, intelligent, and highly automated analytical instruments. In the field of biomedicine, large hospitals and research institutes require analytical instruments that are highly reliable, intelligent, and highly automated. Small and medium-sized hospitals mainly need medium and low-end products. The atmospheric and sewage monitoring systems and systems needed in the environmental protection field account for 65% of medium and low-grade products, 35% of medium-to-high-end products, and 35% of low-grade products, 50% of mid-range products, and high-end products for other applications such as light industry and textiles. 15%.
China's analytical instrumentation is the fastest growing type of instrument in scientific instruments. The average annual growth rate of analytical instrument sales during the Ninth Five-Year Plan period exceeded 30%. At present, with the rapid development of the national economy, the continuous strengthening of scientific research, the continuous improvement of people’s living standards, and the accession to the WTO, many domestic industries are gradually in line with international standards. With the on-line analysis of product quality in industrial production, food safety, and the environment are toxic and harmful. The rapid detection of pollutants on site and the importance of life sciences can predict that the domestic demand for analytical instruments will continue to grow rapidly in the next five years.
(2) Optical instruments Optical instruments are widely used in various fields of the national economy and people's lives. At present, the supply and demand conditions of optical instruments can be summarized as follows: the number of products produced is large, the increase is significant, and supply and demand are basically in balance. Some of the middle- and low-end products have oversupply, while high-end products have fewer varieties and are short of products, and there is a clear gap with the performance of foreign products. In 2003, the sales volume of domestic optical instruments reached 12.95 billion yuan, with an annual growth rate of 41.2%. In 2003, the import volume of optical instruments reached 1.69 billion US dollars, and the annual growth rate was as high as 125.2%.
It is estimated that by 2008, the demand for optical instruments will reach 4 million units, of which the output of binoculars and astronomical telescopes will reach 2 million units. The product structure is that the demand for popular middle- and low-end products is greater than the demand for high-end and mid-range products; the demand for mature products is greater than that of newly-developed products; the demand for brand-name products is better than the demand for ordinary products. Biological microscopes, stereo microscopes, theodolites, leveling instruments, projectors, visible spectrophotometers, UV-visible spectrophotometers, atomic absorption spectrophotometers, Abbe refractometers, binoculars, and astronomical telescopes Larger series of products.
(3) Test machine The testing machine has been characterized by a large amount of products in the domestic market for many years, such as hydraulic universal testing machines, hardness meters and other conventional products. However, in recent years, there has been an increasing demand for electronic, digital, and automotive- and aerospace-specific destructive and non-destructive equipment such as electronic universal testing machines, electro-hydraulic servo testing machines, high-frequency fatigue testing machines, and digital hardness testers. . In the future, the proportion of test machines facing computerization, intelligence, digitalization, multi-functionalization, and mechatronics products will increase significantly, and the demand for complete sets of equipment such as special products, various on-line inspections, and quality control will greatly increase. rising.
Since the late 1980s to date, the technology of foreign tester products has been updated more rapidly, and its potential functions, long-term stability, and operating characteristics far surpass those of China's products, and 1/4 of the country's products are still blank; Control the penetration of foreign products into the Chinese test machine market. In 2003, the sales volume of homemade testers reached 843 million yuan, and the annual growth rate was 6.7%. In 2003, the import value of testing machines reached 203 million US dollars and the annual growth rate reached 21.3%.
The total demand of the testing machine to the domestic market in 2008 will reach more than 70,000 units, of which the electromechanical integration products will account for 50 to 60%. Among them, there are about 18,500 sets of metal testing machines (sets), 17,500 non-metal testing machines (sets), 4,500 process testing machines (sets), 2,000 deformation testing machines (sets), and 6,000 balancing machines (sets). There are 1000 sets of vibration table and impact table, 25000 sets of non-destructive testing instruments and 1500 sets of automobile balancer.
(4) Demand for high-end and middle-range experimental equipment has increased rapidly in the domestic market of laboratory equipment, and demand for low-grade products has grown steadily. With the rapid development of microcomputers, the computerized and modularized design of large and medium-sized complete sets of equipment and the development of network control technologies have increased the demand for intelligent products for laboratory instruments. In the next five years, it is estimated that the annual demand will accurately weigh about 22,000 sets of balance instruments; environmental testing equipment will be about 25,000 sets (including drying boxes); the number of calorimeters in thermal instruments will be about 800 sets; medium-sized test of power test instruments The annual demand for the system is about 400 sets, the annual demand for small instruments is over 25,000 sets, the annual demand for acoustics and vibration instruments is 5,000 sets; the annual demand for low-speed large-capacity and high-speed and large-capacity products in laboratory centrifuges is about 250 sets; low-speed, table-top centrifugal The annual demand for aircraft is about 1900 units.
Next year petrochemical industry growth rate slowed down
Today, the beginning of the year is nearing completion, and petrochemicals, steel and other industries that we instrument and meter industries have also appeared to have less positive signals. For example, on November 24, the autumn report of China's industrial economy running in 2011 released jointly by the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and the Institute of Industrial Economics of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences showed that from January to October, the value-added of the petrochemical industry increased by 14.5% year-on-year, faster than the scale. Above the growth rate of industrial added value. However, at the same time, the report predicts that due to the adverse effects of the downstream industry's declining demand for petrochemical products and rising energy-saving and emission-reduction pressures, the growth rate of China's petrochemical industry will gradually slow down next year. Under the guidance of many factors, the instrumentation industry will face structural inflection points.
1) The issue of excess capacity shows where the steel industry is going? After several years of rapid development, China's steel industry is now peaking, and the problem of overcapacity has gradually emerged. At the 7th Bohai Rim Steel Market Forum held recently, relevant persons from the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology pointed out that during the 12th Five-Year Plan period, China’s steel demand will enter the top of the peak arc, about 800 million tons, and the industry will show a low growth rate and low profitability. The running trend. Improving steel standards and accelerating product upgrades will be an important task for the steel industry during the 12th Five-Year Plan period.
2) Analyze the phenomenon of low-level repeated production in the instrumentation industry. There is still a huge gap between the domestic instrumentation industry and foreign countries, such as the lack of key core technologies, low level of duplication, the stability and reliability of products cannot be fundamentally resolved, and imports are still heavily dependent on imports for high-end precision instruments. Development has caused adverse effects, and the low level of repetitive production of instruments and meters is particularly prominent.
3) Selected for 2011 major technical equipment instruments. In order to increase the level of innovation and development of equipment manufacturing industry, foster strategic emerging industries, promote the transformation and upgrading of traditional industries, and meet the needs of major national economic and national key construction projects for major technological equipment, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology has completed the “major innovation in major technology and equipmentâ€. Preparation of the Guidance Catalog (2011 Edition, Consultation Draft).
4) The total installed capacity of electricity exceeded 10 billion kilowatts at the end of October. Tan Rongji, director of the State Electricity Regulatory Commission, disclosed that as of the end of October this year, the total installed capacity of power generation in the country has exceeded 1 billion kilowatts, and it is expected to reach 1.04 billion kilowatts in the whole year. Tan Rongji said at the ABB Power World Forum today that although the total installed capacity has exceeded 1 billion kilowatts, the growth rate is still lower than the growth rate of total electricity consumption. Therefore, if the contradictions between coal and electricity are not resolved next year and hydropower continues to weaken, The electricity supply will continue to be tight.
In the next five years, the demand for scientific instruments in China will be very high:
Scientific instruments are classified according to the original mechanical system instruments and meters. In addition to various analytical instruments, they also include optical instruments, testing machines, and laboratory instruments. Optical instruments mainly include various microscopes (biological microscopes, embodied microscopes, electron microscopes, etc.), geodetic surveying instruments (theodolites, level instruments, etc.), optical metrology instruments (tool microscopes, projectors, angle measuring instruments, and optical instruments attached to machine tools, etc.). Physical optical instruments (spectrometers, light meters, spectrophotometers, monochromators, polarimeters, refractometers, etc.) and optical test instruments. The testing machine mainly includes various metal material testing machines, non-metal material testing machines, non-destructive flaw detectors and dynamic balancing machines. Laboratory instruments include precision scales, drying ovens, vacuum instruments, strain gauges, environmental testing instruments, calorimeters and acoustic instruments. The following are described in four parts: analytical instruments, optical instruments, testing machines and laboratory instruments.
(1) Analytical Instruments China's imports of analytical instrument products have remained high for many years. According to customs statistics, the total value of physical and chemical analysis instruments imported by China in 2003 was 1.19 billion U.S. dollars, an increase of 44.6% over 2002. It shows that there is a big gap between domestic products in the level of technology, variety, quality, degree of automation, intelligence and completeness, etc., compared with the level of similar products in the world. It also shows that the demand for high-level analytical instruments is increasing.
The main imported products include mass spectrometers, nuclear magnetic resonance spectrometers, chromatographs, chromatogram mass spectrometers, plasma spectrometers, sewage monitors, gas and smoke monitors, and high-performance fluorescence spectrometers. From the analysis of the performance level of imported products, the proportions of medium and high-grade products were 55% and 45% respectively. With China's use of microelectronics and computer technology and new processes, new materials to improve the level of domestic analytical instruments, the increase in imports will gradually reduce.
It is predicted that in the next five years, the demand for major user departments such as petroleum, chemical, metallurgy and electric power will require 60% of the mid-range complete sets of analytical instruments in the late 1990s, 25% of low-grade analytical instruments, and 15 high-grade analytical instruments. %. National and corporate research institutions and technology centers need digital, intelligent, and highly automated analytical instruments. In the field of biomedicine, large hospitals and research institutes require analytical instruments that are highly reliable, intelligent, and highly automated. Small and medium-sized hospitals mainly need medium and low-end products. The atmospheric and sewage monitoring systems and systems needed in the environmental protection field account for 65% of medium and low-grade products, 35% of medium-to-high-end products, and 35% of low-grade products, 50% of mid-range products, and high-end products for other applications such as light industry and textiles. 15%.
China's analytical instrumentation is the fastest growing type of instrument in scientific instruments. The average annual growth rate of analytical instrument sales during the Ninth Five-Year Plan period exceeded 30%. At present, with the rapid development of the national economy, the continuous strengthening of scientific research, the continuous improvement of people’s living standards, and the accession to the WTO, many domestic industries are gradually in line with international standards. With the on-line analysis of product quality in industrial production, food safety, and the environment are toxic and harmful. The rapid detection of pollutants on site and the importance of life sciences can predict that the domestic demand for analytical instruments will continue to grow rapidly in the next five years.
(2) Optical instruments Optical instruments are widely used in various fields of the national economy and people's lives. At present, the supply and demand conditions of optical instruments can be summarized as follows: the number of products produced is large, the increase is significant, and supply and demand are basically in balance. Some of the middle- and low-end products have oversupply, while high-end products have fewer varieties and are short of products, and there is a clear gap with the performance of foreign products. In 2003, the sales volume of domestic optical instruments reached 12.95 billion yuan, with an annual growth rate of 41.2%. In 2003, the import volume of optical instruments reached 1.69 billion US dollars, and the annual growth rate was as high as 125.2%.
It is estimated that by 2008, the demand for optical instruments will reach 4 million units, of which the output of binoculars and astronomical telescopes will reach 2 million units. The product structure is that the demand for popular middle- and low-end products is greater than the demand for high-end and mid-range products; the demand for mature products is greater than that of newly-developed products; the demand for brand-name products is better than the demand for ordinary products. Biological microscopes, stereo microscopes, theodolites, leveling instruments, projectors, visible spectrophotometers, UV-visible spectrophotometers, atomic absorption spectrophotometers, Abbe refractometers, binoculars, and astronomical telescopes Larger series of products.
(3) Test machine The testing machine has been characterized by a large amount of products in the domestic market for many years, such as hydraulic universal testing machines, hardness meters and other conventional products. However, in recent years, there has been an increasing demand for electronic, digital, and automotive- and aerospace-specific destructive and non-destructive equipment such as electronic universal testing machines, electro-hydraulic servo testing machines, high-frequency fatigue testing machines, and digital hardness testers. . In the future, the proportion of test machines facing computerization, intelligence, digitalization, multi-functionalization, and mechatronics products will increase significantly, and the demand for complete sets of equipment such as special products, various on-line inspections, and quality control will greatly increase. rising.
Since the late 1980s to date, the technology of foreign tester products has been updated more rapidly, and its potential functions, long-term stability, and operating characteristics far surpass those of China's products, and 1/4 of the country's products are still blank; Control the penetration of foreign products into the Chinese test machine market. In 2003, the sales volume of homemade testers reached 843 million yuan, and the annual growth rate was 6.7%. In 2003, the import value of testing machines reached 203 million US dollars and the annual growth rate reached 21.3%.
The total demand of the testing machine to the domestic market in 2008 will reach more than 70,000 units, of which the electromechanical integration products will account for 50 to 60%. Among them, there are about 18,500 sets of metal testing machines (sets), 17,500 non-metal testing machines (sets), 4,500 process testing machines (sets), 2,000 deformation testing machines (sets), and 6,000 balancing machines (sets). There are 1000 sets of vibration table and impact table, 25000 sets of non-destructive testing instruments and 1500 sets of automobile balancer.
(4) Demand for high-end and middle-range experimental equipment has increased rapidly in the domestic market of laboratory equipment, and demand for low-grade products has grown steadily. With the rapid development of microcomputers, the computerized and modularized design of large and medium-sized complete sets of equipment and the development of network control technologies have increased the demand for intelligent products for laboratory instruments. In the next five years, it is estimated that the annual demand will accurately weigh about 22,000 sets of balance instruments; environmental testing equipment will be about 25,000 sets (including drying boxes); the number of calorimeters in thermal instruments will be about 800 sets; medium-sized test of power test instruments The annual demand for the system is about 400 sets, the annual demand for small instruments is over 25,000 sets, the annual demand for acoustics and vibration instruments is 5,000 sets; the annual demand for low-speed large-capacity and high-speed and large-capacity products in laboratory centrifuges is about 250 sets; low-speed, table-top centrifugal The annual demand for aircraft is about 1900 units.
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