“The global demand for polyester fibers is expected to account for more than half of the world's fiber market demand by 2015, which will drive the growth of the total supply chain of toluene-xylene-total terephthalic acid (PTA). From the current market, global Polyester fiber production capacity is sufficient to meet demand, while the upstream aromatics industry still has tremendous opportunities for growth.†This was the petrochemical annual meeting held in Houston last week, CMAI and DeWitt and Co. ) The latest research results released by analysts.
Karen Jones, an analyst at Analytical’s Americas fiber and raw materials business, pointed out that 10 years ago, the demand for polyester fiber and cotton accounted for 35% of the global fiber demand of 54.7 million tons, and now the demand for polyester fiber has reached 72.6 million. Ton of 47% of total market demand. Although the market share only increased by 12 percentage points, it almost doubled from 19.15 million tons to 34.12 million tons in terms of market demand.
Anash Puurri, analyst at Asia-Pacific PTA, polyesters, fibers and raw materials business, analyzes that because Asia's para-xylene contract prices are continuously hitting new highs, PTA prices continue to rise, Asian polyester staple prices Has reached the highest point in 15 years. Pu Rui said: "In the short term, the product price of the polyester industry chain may continue to rise. From a global perspective, uncertainties still exist, mainly the increase in production costs, but the strong demand for polyester fiber is sufficient to offset This factor, and maintain a good profit margin."
The survey results show that the current PTA producer's operating rate is close to 100%, which is at the highest point in history. However, the threat of overcapacity for PTA is still very large. The world will add 6 million tons/year of capacity in the next three years. It is expected that the growth rate of demand will be only half of the growth of capacity. However, in the event of an emergency, this oversupply situation will be alleviated. The March 11 earthquake and tsunami in Japan intensified the supply shortage in the global mixed xylene market.
Compared to North America and Western Europe, the Asian market is more active. DeWitt analyst Edgar Acosta said that this year's US xylene exports will increase from 537,000 tons last year to 643,000 tons. Imports from Western Europe will decrease substantially, from about 180,000 tons last year to about 100,000 tons. Asia is the main import area. This year's imports will increase from 786,000 tons last year to 846,000 tons. This will also be reflected in the growth trend of benzene production capacity: Before 2014, almost all new benzene capacity will be built in Asia and the Middle East, and the estimated net production capacity will increase from 60 million tons to 65 million tons, while the economic benefits of refineries Poor and changes in the strategic layout of manufacturers will limit the expansion of benzene capacity in North America and Western Europe.
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