Hybrid cars gradually favored Japanese companies temporarily lead

The “Energy Conservation and New Energy Vehicle Industry Development Plan (2012-2020)” promulgated in April of this year clearly states that “to popularize non-plug-in hybrid vehicles”. It seems that before the pure electric vehicle is perfected, the hybrid vehicle market will be the next field that many car companies will compete for. Among them, the Japanese hybrid vehicles represented by the Lexus CT200h, FAW Toyota Prius, GAC Toyota Camry Zunrui have acquired the initiative in the domestic mixed-vehicle market, and with the Guangzhou-Honda hybrid CR-Z and mixed-duty one after another On stage, Japanese car companies led by Toyota are expected to lead the domestic mixed market.

Account for the "opportunity" of technology

In recent years, the latest power technologies such as hydrogen dynamics, electric vehicles, and fuel cell vehicles displayed by the world’s auto giants have appeared in turns. Some manufacturers even repeatedly stated that pure electric vehicles will be the mainstream of the automobile industry in the future. Toyota Motor Corporation of Japan, as a rising star in the automotive industry, still stubbornly sticks to its "oil and electricity mix." In 1997, since the birth of Prius, the world’s first mass-produced hybrid electric vehicle, Toyota’s hybrid model has sold 4 million vehicles worldwide. Toyota has thus become the world’s largest manufacturer of new energy vehicles. Toyota Motor, which has been cultivating for many years in the field of hybrid power, is undoubtedly in a leading position in technology.

It is understood that according to the proportion of the output power of the motor in the output power of the entire system, the hybrid system can be divided into two categories: "weakly mixed" and "strongly mixed". At present, most hybrid vehicles use the "weakly mixed" power system in parallel or in series, while Toyota's various hybrid models use the deep hybrid system of the engine and the motor, that is, "strong mixing." Such a technical configuration not only helps reduce emissions and fuel consumption, but also facilitates power control.

Looking at the global market, the actual fuel-saving effect of most hybrid models is less than 20%. The data show that among the hybrid models debuted at the Geneva Motor Show that ended in May, the Audi Q5 hybrid has a total power of 184 kW, of which the motor power is 35 kW; the Peugeot 308 hybrid, the entire hybrid system has a power of 147 kW. The power of the motor is 27 kilowatts. By comparison, the new Toyota Yaris hybrid engine has a power of 74 kilowatts and a motor power of 45 kilowatts, which means that the motor can be more involved in the drive process, so the fuel saving effect is even more pronounced.

By policy, "Dongfeng"

At present, Japanese hybrid vehicles have accounted for 20% of the total sales of new cars in Japan's domestic market. The growth rate of markets outside Japan is still not optimistic. Toyota plans to expand its share of the top two Chinese and US markets in the global automotive market, and counterattack attacks on Europe, the United States, and South Korea with the help of low-emission diesel vehicles. After Toyota introduced a series of hybrid models, Honda, Volkswagen and other companies will also bring the latest hybrid vehicles to the Chinese market. High-level executives of all car companies have full confidence in China's mixed market.

One of the reasons for manufacturers' self-confidence may be derived from China's recent "Energy Conservation and New Energy Vehicle Industry Development Plan (2012-2020)". "Planning" clearly stated that the "average fuel consumption of passenger cars produced in 2015 will be reduced to 6.9 liters per 100 kilometers and to 5.0 liters by 2020". Industry sources pointed out that these two indicators, the current market's weak mix of fuel and electricity models is basically difficult to achieve, only Toyota's "strongly mixed" power system may be met. In addition, looking at the development of electric vehicles, there are still many problems that need to be solved in terms of technology and supporting facilities in the past few years. There are still many difficulties in getting into the homes of ordinary people. Many electric cars still have the concept of “can’t afford money” at this stage. car". Therefore, it is reasonable for the hybrid model to receive attention again.

The second reason may be that China will enter the first wave of transfer period. Relevant data show that since the beginning of last year, the proportion of first-time car purchases has begun to decline, and the proportion of secondary car purchases has started to rise significantly. Sun Jian, head of car consulting business in Kernya District, believes that in the past two years China has stepped into the peak of shifts. “Especially in the first and second-tier markets, the proportion of secondary purchases has reached 30%-40% in the past two years. ". Under the great opportunity of changing the tide of cars, many car owners who pursue individuality have turned their attention to hybrid models. Although the current international crude oil price is in a period of consolidation, oil prices are still important expenses for owners to maintain their cars. Many of the owners who ordered Camry • Zunrui are second-time buyers. They all believe that the combination of a medium-class car and fuel economy is the best option for redemption.

Look at the "advantages" of the homeland

The market outlook is promising and the policy is once again favoring hybrid models. However, prices have hindered the development of hybrid vehicles in China. Taking the Prius, a model that has sold more than one million vehicles abroad, for example, the sales of the previous generation Prius in China in 2011 were not nearly one thousand. The price of the third-generation Prius in China was 229,800 yuan to 269,800 yuan. Although it was about 30,000 yuan less than the previous generation, it did not reap the surprise of Chinese public opinion about the price. However, even at such prices, Toyota may have to bear the risk of loss, because the localization rate of the Prius parts is almost zero, plus the impact of tariff rates and the appreciation of the yen, the cost is not low.

In order to reduce costs more effectively, Toyota does not stick to "techniques" and begins to move the hybrid core technology out of the country. It is reported that Toyota plans to carry out "one-stop" production of hybrid vehicles (HEV) including core components in the United States and China around 2015, with a production scale of about 100,000 vehicles a year. Vice Chairman of Toyota Motors, Uchida Takeshi, stated that “With the advancement of Toyota’s Changshu R&D center and the acceleration of localization, the cost of the domestic hybrid powertrain part is expected to be reduced by half.”

What's happening at the same time as reducing costs is the newly launched service advantage. Japanese car companies are taking the lead in human services when they enter the Chinese market. Toyota Lexus CT200h, the main model of Toyota Hybrid, won the market with a long warranty period of “150,000 km for 6 years”. According to the data, the monthly sales of the vehicle have exceeded 1,000 units. Lexus plans that hybrid vehicles will account for 15% of Lexus's annual sales. It is said that many hybrid vehicles that are going to be listed will intentionally follow this practice and extend the warranty period to increase their market share.

Competition or incitement stimulated by the new "plan", the major car companies want to share in the big cake of new energy. Volkswagen Group plans to vigorously develop plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEV), this plan also includes its high-end brand - Audi. According to Michael Dick, research and development director of Audi, 2014 will continue to launch A3 mixed version, in 2015 will launch a hybrid version of gasoline and diesel Q7, and the long axis version of the A6L specifically for the Chinese market will also be launched in 2015 Plug-in hybrid version. Not only that, Porsche also said that it will develop plug-in hybrid models based on the Panamera sedan.

In addition to car companies that have independently developed hybrid systems, there are also many car manufacturers that have developed and cooperated with Toyota in hybrid technology, hoping to stand on the shoulders of giants to achieve leapfrog development. Since 1999, GM has cooperated with Toyota in the development of electric vehicles (EVs), hybrid vehicles (HEVs), and fuel cell vehicles (FCEVs). The cooperation agreement has been signed for five years. Subsequently, Ford, Mazda and Nissan also began to use Toyota's hybrid powertrain. Among them, Ford signed an agreement prior to 2004 to use Toyota's hybrid technology on its SUV models. In 2011, they signed pickups and SUVs that jointly developed hybrid technology. Nissan had previously worked with Toyota on Ford Motor Co., Ltd. to include Toyota's hybrid power system in its own model. BMW and Toyota pay more attention to the cooperation and research in the field of automotive fuel cells. At the same time, BMW will also supply 1.6L and 2.0L displacement diesel engines to the Toyota European market models from 2014 to jointly expand its market share.

In addition, the strength of European car companies in hybrid technology is the diesel-electric hybrid, which is represented by the Volvo V60. The world’s first diesel hybrid is Volvo’s technology. At present, it is equipped with a 2.4L inline five-cylinder turbocharged engine with a maximum power of 154 kW. It is only responsible for driving the front wheels; the rear wheel is driven by Volvo's electric drive system called ERAD. This system consists of a 51 kW. Motor drive and lithium battery packs with a capacity of 12 kWh. At present, these car companies have their own hybrid technology and models, as long as the Chinese consumers recognize, will soon launch the corresponding version of China.

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