Recently, Assistant Minister of Commerce Fang Aiqing spoke on two occasions on different occasions. The "Domestic Trade Development Plan (2011-2015)" is about to be introduced. This is the first national-level special trade development plan since the reform and opening up.
It is understood that the plan covers wholesale, retail, accommodation and catering, and residents' services. It aims to use domestic trade to guide production and expand consumption. The goal is to achieve a total retail sales of consumer goods by 2015. Trillion yuan, an increase of about 80% over the current scale.
The “Twelfth Five-Year Plan†of domestic trade is a planning that involves a wide range of guidelines. Although the policies to promote consumption will not be directly reflected and implemented in the plan, the direction of policy encouragement can be seen.
It is understood that the relevant ministries will have a series of pro-consumption policies. Specifically, it will include the introduction of new methods to increase the retirement subsidies for existing old cars as soon as possible; subsidize the consumption of furniture and other building materials; promote the introduction of tax relief in the circulation sector; and moderately adjust the consumption tax on some consumer goods. At the same time, in addition to subsidy, the promotion of consumption support measures will also be properly explored in areas such as tax exemption, tax refund, and interest subsidy.
Studying tax-free tax rebates and other interest reductions Since the beginning of this year, after the central government has clearly defined the policy signal of “stabilizing growth in a more important position,†various ministries and commissions have successively introduced and implemented relevant measures for steady growth.
With the end of the expiry of the policies on “replacement of new products†between home appliances and automobiles, the State Council’s executive meeting reviewed and arranged financial subsidies of RMB 26.5 billion and launched activities to promote energy-saving appliances.
For the first time, the Ministry of Commerce has deployed nationwide consumer promotion activities to organize national consumer promotion activities in the country from the Ching Ming Festival to the Labor Day.
For the next step in promoting consumption policies and measures, Shen Danyang, spokesman of the Ministry of Commerce, revealed that the Ministry of Commerce is currently negotiating with relevant departments to take measures to further promote consumption growth.
Specifically, it includes: liaising with relevant agencies to increase the existing subsidies for retiring and retiring old cars as soon as possible; supporting the construction of e-commerce platforms; and promoting the introduction of tax relief and other measures in circulation.
Authoritative sources told reporters that reducing the tax burden on business services is an important part. Relevant ministries and commissions have been studying and gradually expanding the VAT exemption policy from the production of live agricultural products to the circulation, so that agricultural product circulation enterprises can really enjoy the same support measures for agricultural product production enterprises.
In addition, reducing the tax burden on catering and trade service industries, the business tax rate will be restored from 5% to 3%, and conditional changes to value-added tax will gradually become an aspect of brewing.
The reporter learned that the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology is stepping up its efforts to study and formulate guidelines for increasing the effective supply of consumer goods industries and boosting consumer demand. While actively developing "opinions," the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology is also closely following up and summarizing the initiatives and experiences of the consumer goods industry's key regions and key enterprises in implementing strategies to expand consumer demand, and strongly supporting local and associations (federations) to carry out various product exhibitions, Forums, presentations and other activities.
Relevant experts told reporters that the main support method for expanding consumption policies in China is to purchase subsidies, that is, to provide relevant policy subsidies when consumers purchase goods in order to attract consumers to purchase products supported by policies. "The new policy of expanding consumption in 2012 may consider appropriate exploration in respect of tax exemption, tax refund, and interest subsidy."
Zhao Ping, deputy director of the Consumer Economics Research Department of the Ministry of Commerce, pointed out that China needs to improve the support methods for expanding consumer policies. Such as adjusting the scope of excise tax collection and tax rate structure. The current consumption tax on certain goods subject to excise tax, such as automobiles, cosmetics, gold and silver jewellery, will be appropriately adjusted. "For those commodities that were previously luxury goods and have now become mass consumer goods, we must gradually lower the consumption tax rate in the new round of consumption tax adjustments, or no longer impose consumption tax."
In addition, for the state-supported key commodities and service areas, it may consider the way in which the consumption tax is levied first. If consumers purchase excise taxes at the time of purchase, they may use the shopping invoice to refund tax to consumers. For the purpose of adopting the loan method for consumption, if the consumer object falls within the scope of policy support, it may consider expanding consumer demand through discount interest. We must increase the support methods for expanding consumer policies and give consumers more choices.
The CITIC Securities report also believes that with the overall policy shift to steady growth, it is expected that the pro-consumption policy may further increase. In addition to further subsidizing circulation, the scope of energy-saving projects may be extended to more energy-saving appliances, water-saving household products, and renovation of building materials and other fields.
Local consumption promotion policies follow-up In addition to the central ministries, local initiatives to promote consumption have also been followed up frequently. Nanjing recently released the "Several Opinions on Further Improving Domestic Demand and Stimulating Consumption," and clarified that policy investment should be increased in six major areas such as real estate consumption, automobile consumption, tourism economy, exhibition economy, e-commerce and green consumption.
Guangxi held a symposium on import, export, and promotion of consumption in the region. It was clear that it was necessary to activate the market, cultivate hot spots, build a market to invigorate circulation, rectify order, optimize the environment, promote consumption, and achieve stable and rapid growth of domestic trade.
Anhui Province has also taken various measures to promote consumption, including focusing on supporting a group of chain retailers, creating a convenient 15-minute service circle to meet the people's immediate consumption, and accelerating the modernization of chain operations, logistics and distribution, franchising, e-commerce and online shopping. Circulation methods; wide platform to carry out a variety of product promotions, only to be held in this year's consumer promotion activities there are hundreds of games.
The Beijing Municipal Commission of Commerce disclosed as early as the beginning of the year that after the end of the trade-in of home appliances, this year it will explore the trade-in of furniture for trade-in. Lu Yan, director of the Beijing Municipal Commission of Commerce, said recently that Beijing’s “renewal of furniture†policy will be formally announced as soon as possible.
Consumption is expected to become the main driving force From the data in the first half of this year, due to the slow recovery of the international economy and the continuous decline of the domestic economy, investment and export performance in the “troika†that drives the economy is sluggish. Only consumption remains stable.
“Although the growth rate of nominal consumption is still declining, this is mainly due to the rapid decline in the price level. Excluding the price level, the actual growth rate of consumption began to increase steadily in the second quarter. In the first half of the year, consumption has boosted the economy by 4.5 percentage points. This is also since the release of sub-item data in 2009, the first time in two consecutive quarters of consumer spending on GDP over investment and net exports, consumption function as an economic stabilizer fully demonstrated.†Soochow Securities macro analyst Qiang Jingjing said.
Looking into the second half of the year, analysts generally believe that consumption growth will increase steadily. Income is the most important variable in the consumption function. In the first half of 2012, the real growth rate of per capita income of urban residents was 9.7%, which was significantly higher than that in 2010 and 2011. The retail sales of urban consumer goods accounted for the total retail sales of consumer goods. As high as 85%, the increase in purchasing power of urban residents is conducive to consumption growth.
It is understood that the increase in consumption growth in China lags behind income growth by about one year, and the growth rate of income has bottomed out in the first quarter of 2011. Therefore, stable consumption growth this year will receive income support. In addition, prices will rebound in August, which is conducive to a rebound in the nominal growth of consumption.
In addition to the improvement of income levels, the series of new policies to expand consumption from the central government to local governments will gradually show effects.
Zhao Ping pointed out that from the development trend of the “troika†in 2012, the contribution rate of consumption, investment, and exports to the national economy will continue the momentum of the previous year’s development. “If the growth momentum of consumption is still faster than investment and exports, consumption will be domestic The contribution rate of GDP will exceed that of investment, and will become the first pulling force for economic growth for the first time in the past 10 years.The economic growth model driven by the coordination of consumption, investment, and exports proposed in the 12th Five-Year Plan of China will be promising this year. see."
It is worth noting that the momentum for a clear rebound in consumption growth is not sufficient. Qiang Jingjing said that from a macro perspective, during the economic downturn, consumption will not be able to thrive for a long time due to the worsening of expectations. The stimulus policy may make consumption prosper for a while, but it will eventually take a favorable turn, so it cannot be over-consumption. expect.
From a microscopic point of view, the growth rate of daily consumer goods in consumption is stable, while the consumption of durable consumer goods fluctuates significantly. In the second half of the year, the tightening of real estate control, the demand for investment-type housing continues to be inhibited, and “Jin 9 Silver 10†is difficult to come. Therefore, real estate transactions are unlikely to increase sharply, and the growth rate of real estate-related consumption growth is limited. The front-line automobile production and sales “city†Guangzhou’s automobile Purchase restrictions have added to the sluggish auto market, and the growth of durable consumer goods may be difficult to increase significantly.
On the whole, analysts generally believe that this year's consumption growth will increase slightly or steadily. The annual consumption growth will be around 15%.
It is understood that the plan covers wholesale, retail, accommodation and catering, and residents' services. It aims to use domestic trade to guide production and expand consumption. The goal is to achieve a total retail sales of consumer goods by 2015. Trillion yuan, an increase of about 80% over the current scale.
The “Twelfth Five-Year Plan†of domestic trade is a planning that involves a wide range of guidelines. Although the policies to promote consumption will not be directly reflected and implemented in the plan, the direction of policy encouragement can be seen.
It is understood that the relevant ministries will have a series of pro-consumption policies. Specifically, it will include the introduction of new methods to increase the retirement subsidies for existing old cars as soon as possible; subsidize the consumption of furniture and other building materials; promote the introduction of tax relief in the circulation sector; and moderately adjust the consumption tax on some consumer goods. At the same time, in addition to subsidy, the promotion of consumption support measures will also be properly explored in areas such as tax exemption, tax refund, and interest subsidy.
Studying tax-free tax rebates and other interest reductions Since the beginning of this year, after the central government has clearly defined the policy signal of “stabilizing growth in a more important position,†various ministries and commissions have successively introduced and implemented relevant measures for steady growth.
With the end of the expiry of the policies on “replacement of new products†between home appliances and automobiles, the State Council’s executive meeting reviewed and arranged financial subsidies of RMB 26.5 billion and launched activities to promote energy-saving appliances.
For the first time, the Ministry of Commerce has deployed nationwide consumer promotion activities to organize national consumer promotion activities in the country from the Ching Ming Festival to the Labor Day.
For the next step in promoting consumption policies and measures, Shen Danyang, spokesman of the Ministry of Commerce, revealed that the Ministry of Commerce is currently negotiating with relevant departments to take measures to further promote consumption growth.
Specifically, it includes: liaising with relevant agencies to increase the existing subsidies for retiring and retiring old cars as soon as possible; supporting the construction of e-commerce platforms; and promoting the introduction of tax relief and other measures in circulation.
Authoritative sources told reporters that reducing the tax burden on business services is an important part. Relevant ministries and commissions have been studying and gradually expanding the VAT exemption policy from the production of live agricultural products to the circulation, so that agricultural product circulation enterprises can really enjoy the same support measures for agricultural product production enterprises.
In addition, reducing the tax burden on catering and trade service industries, the business tax rate will be restored from 5% to 3%, and conditional changes to value-added tax will gradually become an aspect of brewing.
The reporter learned that the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology is stepping up its efforts to study and formulate guidelines for increasing the effective supply of consumer goods industries and boosting consumer demand. While actively developing "opinions," the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology is also closely following up and summarizing the initiatives and experiences of the consumer goods industry's key regions and key enterprises in implementing strategies to expand consumer demand, and strongly supporting local and associations (federations) to carry out various product exhibitions, Forums, presentations and other activities.
Relevant experts told reporters that the main support method for expanding consumption policies in China is to purchase subsidies, that is, to provide relevant policy subsidies when consumers purchase goods in order to attract consumers to purchase products supported by policies. "The new policy of expanding consumption in 2012 may consider appropriate exploration in respect of tax exemption, tax refund, and interest subsidy."
Zhao Ping, deputy director of the Consumer Economics Research Department of the Ministry of Commerce, pointed out that China needs to improve the support methods for expanding consumer policies. Such as adjusting the scope of excise tax collection and tax rate structure. The current consumption tax on certain goods subject to excise tax, such as automobiles, cosmetics, gold and silver jewellery, will be appropriately adjusted. "For those commodities that were previously luxury goods and have now become mass consumer goods, we must gradually lower the consumption tax rate in the new round of consumption tax adjustments, or no longer impose consumption tax."
In addition, for the state-supported key commodities and service areas, it may consider the way in which the consumption tax is levied first. If consumers purchase excise taxes at the time of purchase, they may use the shopping invoice to refund tax to consumers. For the purpose of adopting the loan method for consumption, if the consumer object falls within the scope of policy support, it may consider expanding consumer demand through discount interest. We must increase the support methods for expanding consumer policies and give consumers more choices.
The CITIC Securities report also believes that with the overall policy shift to steady growth, it is expected that the pro-consumption policy may further increase. In addition to further subsidizing circulation, the scope of energy-saving projects may be extended to more energy-saving appliances, water-saving household products, and renovation of building materials and other fields.
Local consumption promotion policies follow-up In addition to the central ministries, local initiatives to promote consumption have also been followed up frequently. Nanjing recently released the "Several Opinions on Further Improving Domestic Demand and Stimulating Consumption," and clarified that policy investment should be increased in six major areas such as real estate consumption, automobile consumption, tourism economy, exhibition economy, e-commerce and green consumption.
Guangxi held a symposium on import, export, and promotion of consumption in the region. It was clear that it was necessary to activate the market, cultivate hot spots, build a market to invigorate circulation, rectify order, optimize the environment, promote consumption, and achieve stable and rapid growth of domestic trade.
Anhui Province has also taken various measures to promote consumption, including focusing on supporting a group of chain retailers, creating a convenient 15-minute service circle to meet the people's immediate consumption, and accelerating the modernization of chain operations, logistics and distribution, franchising, e-commerce and online shopping. Circulation methods; wide platform to carry out a variety of product promotions, only to be held in this year's consumer promotion activities there are hundreds of games.
The Beijing Municipal Commission of Commerce disclosed as early as the beginning of the year that after the end of the trade-in of home appliances, this year it will explore the trade-in of furniture for trade-in. Lu Yan, director of the Beijing Municipal Commission of Commerce, said recently that Beijing’s “renewal of furniture†policy will be formally announced as soon as possible.
Consumption is expected to become the main driving force From the data in the first half of this year, due to the slow recovery of the international economy and the continuous decline of the domestic economy, investment and export performance in the “troika†that drives the economy is sluggish. Only consumption remains stable.
“Although the growth rate of nominal consumption is still declining, this is mainly due to the rapid decline in the price level. Excluding the price level, the actual growth rate of consumption began to increase steadily in the second quarter. In the first half of the year, consumption has boosted the economy by 4.5 percentage points. This is also since the release of sub-item data in 2009, the first time in two consecutive quarters of consumer spending on GDP over investment and net exports, consumption function as an economic stabilizer fully demonstrated.†Soochow Securities macro analyst Qiang Jingjing said.
Looking into the second half of the year, analysts generally believe that consumption growth will increase steadily. Income is the most important variable in the consumption function. In the first half of 2012, the real growth rate of per capita income of urban residents was 9.7%, which was significantly higher than that in 2010 and 2011. The retail sales of urban consumer goods accounted for the total retail sales of consumer goods. As high as 85%, the increase in purchasing power of urban residents is conducive to consumption growth.
It is understood that the increase in consumption growth in China lags behind income growth by about one year, and the growth rate of income has bottomed out in the first quarter of 2011. Therefore, stable consumption growth this year will receive income support. In addition, prices will rebound in August, which is conducive to a rebound in the nominal growth of consumption.
In addition to the improvement of income levels, the series of new policies to expand consumption from the central government to local governments will gradually show effects.
Zhao Ping pointed out that from the development trend of the “troika†in 2012, the contribution rate of consumption, investment, and exports to the national economy will continue the momentum of the previous year’s development. “If the growth momentum of consumption is still faster than investment and exports, consumption will be domestic The contribution rate of GDP will exceed that of investment, and will become the first pulling force for economic growth for the first time in the past 10 years.The economic growth model driven by the coordination of consumption, investment, and exports proposed in the 12th Five-Year Plan of China will be promising this year. see."
It is worth noting that the momentum for a clear rebound in consumption growth is not sufficient. Qiang Jingjing said that from a macro perspective, during the economic downturn, consumption will not be able to thrive for a long time due to the worsening of expectations. The stimulus policy may make consumption prosper for a while, but it will eventually take a favorable turn, so it cannot be over-consumption. expect.
From a microscopic point of view, the growth rate of daily consumer goods in consumption is stable, while the consumption of durable consumer goods fluctuates significantly. In the second half of the year, the tightening of real estate control, the demand for investment-type housing continues to be inhibited, and “Jin 9 Silver 10†is difficult to come. Therefore, real estate transactions are unlikely to increase sharply, and the growth rate of real estate-related consumption growth is limited. The front-line automobile production and sales “city†Guangzhou’s automobile Purchase restrictions have added to the sluggish auto market, and the growth of durable consumer goods may be difficult to increase significantly.
On the whole, analysts generally believe that this year's consumption growth will increase slightly or steadily. The annual consumption growth will be around 15%.
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