According to the latest report from the United States’s Friedonia Group, global demand for lubricants will increase at an average annual rate of 2.6% in the next few years, and global lubricant demand will reach 41.7 million tons/year by 2015. The demand in North America will increase from 8.82 million tons in 2010 to 9.3 million tons in 2015, with an average annual growth rate of 1.1%; the demand in Western Europe will increase from 4.8 million tons to 5 million tons, with an average annual increase. Speed ​​0.8%; Asia-Pacific region will increase from 13.53 million tons to 16.5 million tons, with an average annual growth rate of 4%; demand in other regions will increase from 9.55 million tons to 10.85 million tons, with an average annual growth rate of 2.6%.
According to the Freetown Group, motor vehicles are the largest lubricants market. Asian developing countries led by China and India are leading the growth in demand for lubricants in this area. However, this growth trend has been negatively affected by the extension of the lubrication period. The promotion and application of high-performance synthetic lubricants will lead to a decline in demand in Western Europe and North America. The oil change period of this high-performance synthetic lubricant is significantly extended, thereby reducing the actual consumption of lubricant oil. The fastest growing demand for lubricants by 2015 will be manufacturing and other markets. The Asia-Pacific region, led by China, will continue to be the main engine for growth in these markets, as major companies around the world have embraced the Asia-Pacific region where labor costs are relatively low and the political situation is stable. In addition, Central and South America and Africa/Middle East will also have faster growth, and most countries in these two regions are continuing the process of industrialization revolution.
By product category, engine oil will continue to account for the major share of global lubricant demand, which mainly reflects the importance of transportation in the context of global economic upwards, both from the consumer level and from the commercial level. Hydraulic oil will be the fastest growing lubricant for demand, due to the development of the manufacturing industry and the strong growth of the global natural resources extraction industry, such as mining and oil and gas production.
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