Recently, China officially launched the phase-out of HCFCs. At the same time, the market also reported that R22 in HCFCs will no longer be expanded and newly constructed, and the entry threshold for R142b will be set at 5,000 tons. However, Juhua and San Aifu of the organic fluorine sector remained flat.
It is undeniable that the downturn in the overall market has inhibited the performance of the fluorochemical sector after being stimulated by good news, but what investors need to understand is how the suppression of fluorinated workers has been affected. On this basis, we can better determine the trend of the later period.
First, the declining trend of the short-term industry climate directly inhibits the market performance of related stocks. From May to September, the traditional off-season of refrigerants, the market supply was relatively sufficient, and the prices of related products continued to decline and the magnitude was relatively large.
Correspondingly, the stock prices of San Aifu and Juhua fell even more. According to previous years' experience, industry demand will rebound after October, but how will the price of refrigerants still need data to confirm? At least, given the current lack of optimism about macroeconomic expectations, the market will be more cautious about the performance of the fluorine chemical industry after the traditional peak season.
Second, fluorine chemicals, especially organic fluorine, are highly cyclical industries. After experiencing soaring inflation, the market fears that the slump may have started and the decline may exceed expectations as rising. Taking San Aifu as an example, the company's EPS per share was -0.2 yuan in 2008, and it was 0.054 yuan in 2009. In 2010, it rose to 0.132 yuan with the recovery of the industry economy. This year, the price rose sharply. In the first half of the year alone, earnings per share reached 1.43 yuan. When the economy is booming, profits will improve significantly. From another perspective, when the economy declines, profits will become very poor. At present, the stock price of related companies is still much higher than historical lows and has not been adjusted to the "mountain foothold".
Thirdly, China’s formal launch of HCFC phase-out operations and enhancement of HCFC-based entry thresholds means that the supply is reduced, which is good for the fluorochemical sector, but at the same time it should also see the shrinking demand.
According to the contents of the Montreal Protocol, China will need to freeze the production and use of HCFCs on the average of two years from 2009 to 2010 on January 1, 2013. In 2015, the reduction will be 10% at the freezing level and will be realized by 2030. Complete elimination except maintenance and special purpose. This means that if the existing HCFC production capacity can not continue to extend downstream, it will face the outcome of being eliminated; if you do not want to be eliminated or extended to related areas in the downstream, this will probably mean that the expansion of production capacity in these areas will decline .
Fourth, facing policy pressures, the way out for fluorinated workers is to transform and upgrade, and to develop products with higher technological levels and more environmentally friendly products. Otherwise, companies in the industry will face dangers of going out, and technological R&D is precisely the weakness of China's fluorochemical enterprises. . China's technological level in the field of high-end fluorinated chemicals such as fluoropolymers, fluorine-containing electronic chemicals, fluorinated surfactants, and low-GWP value ODS substitutes is far from the international advanced level, and many representative advanced fluorine chemicals The technology is still in the pilot or even small-scale trial stage and has not yet been industrialized.
To combine these factors, the key to the investment value of fluorinated workers depends on the progress of corporate technological breakthroughs. The "12th Five-Year Plan" of fluorinating workers proposed that China should initially establish a fluorinergic industrial power during the "Twelfth Five-Year Plan" period, and lay a solid foundation for the establishment of a comprehensive fluorine chemical industry power in the "Thirteenth Five-Year Plan" period. It can be seen that the fluorochemical industry still has a long way to go.
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