Not long ago, the China Rubber Industry Association Mechanical and Die Branch 2015 Member Conference and Industry Technology Seminar was held in Shanghai. The vice president and secretary-general of the China Rubber Association, Xu Wenying, attended the meeting and gave a keynote speech.
Xu Wenying reviewed the operation of the tire industry in the first quarter of 2015 and analyzed the status quo and development trends of the industry. The media was informed that the China Rubber Association’s forecast for China’s tire production this year is an increase of 4.5%, but the industry’s operating data, including tire production, declined in the first quarter. Under a severe market situation, whether this growth goal can be achieved is still unknown.
China Rubber Association expects an overall increase in tire production
According to data provided by the China Rubber Association, in 2015, the total tire production in the country is expected to reach 587 million, an increase of 4.5%. Among them, the radial tire output was 534 million, an increase of 4.6%, and the radialization rate was 91%; the number of bias tires was 503 million, an increase of 3.9%. In the radial tires, the output of all-steel tires was 116 million, an increase of 3.6%; the number of semi-steel tires was 418 million, an increase of 4.8%.
From the above forecast data, the tire demand outlook seems to be very good. However, as far as the media knows, China's tire industry did not perform well in the first quarter.
Industry operating data is in full swing
The performance of the first quarter of six domestic listed tire companies declined in a collective manner, and their operating income decreased. Among them, in addition to the 17.55% decline in revenue of the racing Jinyu, the remaining 5 revenues fell more than 20%, the largest drop in Qingdao Double Star reached 38.96%.
From the perspective of corporate profits, Fengshen decreased by 44%; double money fell by 207%; racing gold went down by 67%; and the precious wheel dropped by 19%. Xu Wenying said to reporters: This is the year in which the profits of the rubber industry have fallen the most.
According to the statistics of the Rubber Association’s tire branch, from January to March this year, the output of comprehensive tires of 44 key enterprises of the Chapter fell by 7.09% year-on-year, a decrease of 22.58 percentage points from the same period of last year; and a profit of 1.037 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease. 44.38%.
In Xu Wenying's view, this is just like the movie "Speed ​​and Passion" describes. After 30 years of rapid progress in the Chinese tire industry, the current operation has entered a rapid decline.
Import and export demand are declining
According to the statistics of the customs from January to March, imports of all-steel tyres have fallen by 40% year-on-year; imports of semi-steel tyres have dropped by 12%. Xu Wenying said that this has never happened in the past five years, indicating that the domestic market in China is not in demand. Because if the import situation is good, it means that the Chinese domestic market is good; if the export situation is good, it means that the foreign market is better.
At present, there are more than 40 Chinese exports for every 100 tires produced. Therefore, the export is very close to the tire industry as a whole. Data show that from January to March, national semi-steel exports fell by 10%; total exports of steel tires decreased by 1.8%. It can be seen that this year's domestic market is even worse than foreign markets.
Xu Wenying told reporters that before, China's tire exports remained at 10%, 20%, or even 40%. In the first quarter of this year, exports have not only failed to grow but have also declined. This is a very big issue facing the Chinese tire industry.
“The negative growth of domestic market imports to 40% indicates that the demand for the domestic market, especially for all-steel tyres, is rather poor. Therefore, the relevant departments of the State are very anxious and are intensively investigating why the data of various industrial ports have dropped so badly,†said Xu Wenying.
The data is bleak and the demand is quite bad, but this is not the most tragic. According to analysis by industry experts, in addition to the complex external environment, the current development of China's tire industry is still faced with many problems: the lack of operating rate of enterprises; the average profit rate of the industry is low (only about 3%-4%, far below the 15% of famous brands). Profitability); lack of technological R&D and innovation capability; serious product homogeneity; lack of innovation in sales channels; natural rubber is heavily dependent on imports; product market mainly relies on exports, and mainly replaces tires, with a small proportion of original tires.
In this context, the Chinese tire industry's original target for growth this year will not be realized. Perhaps a big question mark should be drawn.
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