Oil prices are expected to be stranded or slightly raised near the 50 yuan redline on Friday


On January 26th, the domestic retail price of refined oil products ushered in a new round of adjustment window. "Economic Information Daily" reporter learned from a number of social monitoring agencies, the current measurement range of 50 yuan / ton near the red line, is expected to be stranded or slightly increased.

Recently, international oil prices have been at a high level of turmoil. Brent has shifted downwards after he has soared $70/barrel. Although the U.S. crude oil production showed signs of recovery, many oil-producing countries successively expressed their determination to reduce production. This gave the bulls a "tenting pill." In addition, stocks continued to decline, the International Monetary Fund raised its global economic growth forecast and the dollar fell below the 90 mark. These factors provide the oil market with strong underlying support.

As of the close of January 23, the light crude oil futures prices for March delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange rose 0.90 US dollars to close at 64.47 US dollars per barrel, an increase of 1.42%. London Brent crude oil futures for March delivery rose by 0.93 U.S. dollars to close at 69.96 U.S. dollars, an increase of 1.35%.

China's "Administrative Measures on Oil Price" stipulates that domestic gasoline and diesel prices should be adjusted every 10 working days according to changes in crude oil prices in the international market. The effective date of price adjustment is 24 hours on the date of price adjustment. When the price adjustment rate is lower than 50 yuan per ton, no adjustment will be made and the cumulative or offset will be included in the next price adjustment.

On January 24, Beijing time, Zhongyu Information estimated that the crude oil change rate was 2.7%, and Zhongyu crude oil was valued at 66.673 US dollars/barrel, which was an increase of 1.751 US dollars/barrel from the benchmark price. It is temporarily expected that the zero limit price of refined oil will be raised at 24 o'clock on January 26th. 60 yuan/ton. Jinlianchuang and Longzhong Information estimated that the price of gasoline and diesel will be increased by RMB 55/t, and the new round of refined oil price adjustment window will be opened at 24:00 on January 26. However, Zhuo Chuang Information Oil Product Analyst Zhang Yuxin believes that the current round of oil price increase is likely to be less than 50 yuan/ton, so this round of refined oil retail price adjustment may achieve the first time during the year.

Zhongyu Information Analyst Ma Jiancai said that after the market outlook, international crude oil still has downward pressure, and the domestic market's current round of retail prices may still be raised or stranded. With the end of the year, end-users will start or will continue to reduce, resulting in further reduction of diesel demand, the operators enter the market operation is limited, the high inventory manufacturers do not rule out continue to increase promotional efforts. With the gradual arrival of the Spring Festival holidays, the demand for petrol is relatively strong. Some companies are preparing goods in advance. It is expected that domestic gasoline will be better than diesel in the short term.



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