After a series of macro-control combinations by the central government and the central bank, the hot spot of the overheated economy has finally slowed down the galloping horses under the tightening reins. In the second quarter of this year, GDP growth slowed down. During the entire first half of the year, GDP grew by 9.7%.
Coincidentally, the automotive industry is also this year, a change in the scene over the past three years to sing a song, car sales growth slowed down, inventory increased, and the sensitivity of sales volume to the price is also significantly reduced.
Is this stage adjustment of the auto industry due to the macro-control squeeze? In the second half of this year, will the intensity of macro-control be increased?
Regulation: "action" basically completed, "pharmaceutical effect" has not yet fully revealed the State Council Development Research Center, Deputy Minister of Industry and Economic Research Dr. Feng Fei believes that "there is no possibility for the country to introduce a macro-control policy." At present, the effectiveness of macro-control It is already obvious, but from the time lag of any country's policy control, the "pharmaceutical effect" will continue. Therefore, the impact of macro-control on enterprises will continue to exert "medicinal properties" in the second half of the year.
In fact, many experts have started to worry about whether the regulation is too big and whether the macro economy will “hard-landingâ€. Gao Shanwen, deputy researcher of the Institute of Finance at the State Council Development Research Center and chief economist at the Everbright Securities Research Institute, said that the economic growth rate shown in the second quarter economic data has been falling sharply, indicating that macroeconomic policies may be excessive. If the current tightening policy continues for a long time, the risk of a hard landing for the economy will be very high.
Feng Fei believes that this time is different from the overheating of the economy in 1993 and 1994. The first is that there are hot and cold, hot industries such as steel, and cold like tertiary industries. The second is that the current high growth is the result of both investment and demand, and the demand is derived from the upgrading of the residents' consumption structure. Automobiles and housing are the two main forces that guide people's consumption upgrading. China is in a period of overall economic and social transformation. From the perspective of the process of market-oriented reform, the role of the government has a crucial influence on the further development of the automobile industry.
"Wheezing": not the curse of the regulation. For the current decline in the development of the automotive industry, Feng Fei believes that the impact of macro-control is there, but the structural adjustment of the auto industry itself is greater than the impact of external macro-control policies.
He said: "After China's accession to the WTO, the auto market has seen spurt growth. In a calm manner, it is not sustainable. The relationship between per capita GDP and car ownership before the end of 2001 can be said to be a consumer debt. The problem is that the current demand for automobiles is 'consumer spending increases.' How long can this situation last? 'I am afraid this is something that the auto industry must grasp. "Perhaps four or five years later, we will return to the laws of the auto market itself. It is the sustainable income per capita that determines the scale of the auto market." In his opinion, the market's decline in the recent period is the medium- and long-term factor is "return". The law. There are two factors in the short-term, one is the elimination of quotas in 2005, consumers have a psychological expectation that domestic cars will also reduce prices; the second is macro-control, especially the adjustment of credit to consumers who use consumer credit as a way to buy cars influences.
Wang Yuesheng, a professor at Peking University, also believes that in the real prosperity of the automotive industry over the past few years, there are also false fires that cannot be ignored. Some companies that are completely irrelevant to automobile production have also entered the auto industry in large numbers, further exacerbating the investment boom in the auto industry. Virtual fire always has to "pick up."
Hope: Between the potential and the darkness, will the auto industry enter a relatively long period of downturn due to factors such as macro-control and industrial development?
Feng Fei is more optimistic. He believes that the automotive industry has a great role in the development of the national economy. Looking at the economic growth model of the big industrial nations, we know that it is inseparable from the "booster" of the economic growth of the automobile industry. At the same time, the auto industry has a large degree of industrial correlation. The linkages between upstream and downstream industries are very strong. The value created by the car in the consumption process is much greater than the sale of the car itself. The automotive industry is the carrier of high-tech achievements. The upgrading of the industrial structure is very important to the promotion of technological upgrading. "Some people say that modern civilization is based on the civilization of automotive products. If you talk about the role of automobiles in promoting economic growth, it is only beginning to show up, at least for 20 years."
Liu Shijin, Minister of Industry of the Development Research Center of the State Council, believes that the potential market capacity of China's auto market is unmatched by any other country. When the Chinese auto market reaches saturation, its capacity will be close to or exceed the sum of the current capacity of all developed countries' auto market. In a market of this size, companies with good adaptability and specific competitiveness will become large companies on a global scale.
However, Feng Fei also said in an interview with this reporter that the car also brings some human challenges, such as energy, transportation and environmental issues. He believes that in the period of mass consumption of automobiles, some measures must be taken to guide mass consumption. If the contradictions between these energy and environmental issues are very prominent in the future, then taking the urgent braking approach to solve it will affect the sustainable development of the automotive industry. Therefore, Feng Fei said that the most realistic problem in China is to promote the application of diesel vehicles and the development of mass production of hybrid vehicles.