In recent months, the auto market has suddenly slumped, and how is it related to the national macro-control? How long can this situation last? Where will the auto market go this year? At the first China Automobile Dealer Conference hosted by the newspaper, the Vice President of the China Federation of Machinery Industry, Zhang Xiaokai, accepted an exclusive interview with this reporter.
“Our country has carried out 5 major macro-controls in the past. Facts have proved that each macro-control has brought great impact on the production and sales of automobiles.†said Zhang Xiaoxuan.
"The first four macroeconomic adjustments are all tightening, so the output of cars is on a downward trend."
According to him, during the first macro-control period from 1979 to 1981, the annual automobile production dropped from 220,000 to 170,000 vehicles, a large drop; the second was from 1985 to 1986 and the annual output was from 440,000 vehicles. It fell to 370,000 units. The third time from 1988 to 1989, the annual production dropped from 640,000 units to 500,000 vehicles. The fourth time from 1994 to 1998, there was no large-scale decline in vehicle production, but the increase rate dropped. 2.5% to 5% between low speed.
He said that in the past, mainly public funds were used for car purchases and there was less private consumption. After 1994, the government proposed to encourage individuals to purchase cars. The auto market should have a rapid growth. "But since 1994-1998 was the period of economic adjustment, the car had a negative growth instead. This is where macroeconomic regulation plays a role."
"The first few adjustments, only one expansion type, will lead to a substantial increase in vehicle output." By 1998-2002, the state was carrying out expansionary adjustments, mainly to expand domestic demand. At this time, the automotive industry has experienced a rapid growth in blowouts. The average growth rate of the automotive industry in these years has reached 30% to 40%.
Zhang Xiaolu believes that after the first four adjustments, the autos have all drastically reduced their production, and they are injuring the entire industry. From last year to the present, there are actually some local tightening adjustments, but with the first five times of endurance, the impact on the automotive industry will not be as big as the previous ones. Moreover, the current automobile market structure is also different from the past. Therefore, we must not only see difficulties but also increase confidence in this macro-control.
"It should be said that we have no mature experience in adjusting the economy by means of market measures, including adjusting the economy through macro-regulation. A slight adjustment will cool down, let go a little hot, and each time we feel very successful. But looking back, it was difficult to say which time it was a successful one.According to popular terms, when the state talked about macroeconomic control, each department had prescriptions and companies took medicines, but now they all eat 'cacoides'. â€
So, how does he view the downturn in the auto market in these few months?
"I don't agree with the 'Black May' statement." Zhang Xiaoxuan analyzed that the current auto market is only experiencing an increase in the rate of decline. The development of "blowout" is no longer a problem. In fact, the market is still moving forward. He predicts that the total increase in car production this year will only reach 20%, instead of the 30% that was originally expected; the car is expected to grow by about 40%, compared with 80% last year. There are no problems with the production of 2.5 million cars this year.
View related topics: increase millions every year, analyze the production and sales of automobiles (commercial vehicles)